Fantasy Football Strategy Mailbag: Derrick Henry Is A Draft-Day Bargain

The July 4th holiday is behind us, and we're starting to move from a walk toward prime fantasy football draft season to a jog. Before you know it, you'll be screaming at your screen or draft board, wishing you had built your fantasy football strategy sooner.

To avoid that, let's dive into some topics I've been discussing on shows and social to help you strategize for your drafts.

2026 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Mailbag

Who are some players that could outperform their current Fantasy Football ADPs?

Based on our fantasy football projections, there are a few! Derrick Henry is currently being drafted as the RB12 on Underdog, but his Fantasy Life projections have him finishing as the RB6.

Henry's season last year wasn't as incredible as 2024, but damn, he was still good. He finished with 1,595 rushing yards (second-most in the NFL) and had 24 carries inside the five-yard line. Is it risky? Drafting any running back at 33 years old always carries some risk, but Henry has played at least 15 games in all but one of his 10 NFL seasons. He's running at a high level, but he's still a non-factor as a receiver, and that doesn't change in the projections for the upcoming season …

Rushing yards: 1,404
Rushing TDs: 13
Targets: 22
Receptions: 19
Receiving yards: 174

Jaylen Waddle is another player who could have some value. On Underdog, he's being drafted as the WR24, and our projections have him as the WR16. Waddle has performed for years with a combination of bad quarterback play and Tyreek Hill on the field. And yet, in those five seasons, he still averaged 75 receptions, 1,008 yards and 5.4 touchdowns. The projections tell a story of Waddle still coming through for fantasy managers …

Waddle: 122 targets / 82 receptions / 1,092 receiving yards / 229.3 PPR Fantasy Points
Sutton: 108 targets / 68 receptions / 911 receiving yards / 199.9 PPR Fantasy Points

Last but not least, we have Trevor Lawrence. I firmly believe his 2025 season was not a flash in the pan. There's not a huge difference between his Underdog price tag (QB10) and our projections (QB8), but he's a quarterback I'm trying to target regularly.

From Week 12 through the Wild Card round, he averaged 25.4 points per game.

It felt like he finally clicked with Liam Coen and everything went right through the air and on the ground—Lawrence accounted for 10% of the designed rush attempts and had a 7% scramble rate. He's projected for 3,776 passing yards and 31 total touchdowns in 2026, all leading to a potential 304 total fantasy points. Sign me up!

How Are You Approaching Crowded WR Rooms Like The Packers In 2026 Fantasy Drafts?

It's crowded, but it's actually been worse, if that helps ease some worries. I've moved all three of Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden up in my rankings. The Packers let Romeo Doubs walk in free agency to join the Patriots and the Eagles added to their long list of offseason WR moves by signing Dontayvion Wicks.

The Packers and Reed agreed to a three-year contract extension worth $50.25 million in new money. His 2025 season was highlighted by injury, and he was only able to play in seven games with three starts, totaling 19 catches and one touchdown. Still, with two other receivers out of the picture, it feels like this offense should be more condensed this season.

Reed has flashed previously; in his rookie season, he finished with 64 catches for 793 yards and 8 touchdowns. In his sophomore campaign, he locked down 55 receptions, 857 yards and 6 touchdowns. The upside is there, and if Jordan Love can stay healthy and attempt more passes this season, we could see Reed be the beneficiary.

Christian Watson obviously benefits here, too, and is the most expensive of the group to draft. Last season, Doubs led the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards, but don't forget what Watson was able to do during the final seven games of the season—he averaged 6.1 targets, 60 receiving yards and 15.1 PPR fantasy points.

The jury is still out on Golden, but it's early in his career. He finished his rookie season with just 29 receptions on 44 targets for 361 yards and no scores. There will be an increase in playing time, but Golden is the WR3 in my rankings from this team.

Which Later-Round Rookies Are You Drafting Right Now?

I definitely have a few that I like! The Commanders drafted Antonio Williams with the No. 71 overall pick and he landed in a barren wide receiver room outside of Terry McLaurin, a perfect starting point for us to focus on for fantasy.

There's a path for Williams to emerge as the primary slot target for Jayden Daniels this season, even if this team ends up still signing someone like Keenan Allen or Stefon Diggs. McLaurin is the only wide receiver on the Commanders’ roster who saw a target share above 12% last season. Williams has a great opportunity and should be looked at as an upside WR3 in fantasy drafts.

A running back I have been drafting is Nicholas Singleton, who landed with the Titans. At Penn State last season, Singleton had 32 rushes of at least 10 yards and locked down 102 receptions during his college career. Is this the cleanest landing spot? No. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are still on this team, but both are free agents next season (keep that in mind for dynasty). Pollard finished last season on a high-ish note, but Spears has both struggled to stay healthy and reach his full potential. There's a chance Singleton has a role in 2026.